The Delphi method is a structured way to pool the opinions of many experts to reach a group solution. It was developed in 1969 by the Rand Corporation to facilitate technological forecasting. It has the benefit of overcoming the bias that results from some voices being more dominant than others – by virtue either of personality or eminence.
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The primary uses of the Delphi method are in forecasting and decision making. The Delphi method tends to produce robust predictions based on experience, by eliminating the wilder contributions.
However, sometimes the past is a poor guide to the future and there is a possibility of massive and discontinuous change. In these cases, the Delphi method is not suitable.
This makes the Delphi Method inappropriate for leading-edge projects.
Here is a model for using the Delphi method for identifying and evaluating risks.
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What is the Delphi Method? And How to Use the Delphi Method | Video Click To TweetDr Mike Clayton is one of the most successful and in-demand project management trainers in the UK. He is author of 14 best-selling books, including four about project management. He is also a prolific blogger and contributor to ProjectManager.com and Project, the journal of the Association for Project Management. Between 1990 and 2002, Mike was a successful project manager, leading large project teams and delivering complex projects. In 2016, Mike launched OnlinePMCourses.
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