Please Share

What is a Black Swan? | Video

What is a Black Swan? | Video

The Black Swan is a book about risk, by polymath, Nassim Nicolas Taleb. It has an essential lesson about risk management.

PMI Talent Triangle - Technical Project Management

This video is safe for viewing in the workplace.

This is learning, so, sit back and enjoy

Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria

  1. Outlier
    Something not expected from previous experience
  2. Extreme impact
  3. Explainable after the fact

You can think of a black swan event as an Unknown Unknown.

However, we do believe we could have predicted it… with hindsight

Taleb gets the name, Black Swan, from a quote from Juvenal:

“rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno”

“a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan”

Black swan events arise from the limitations of our knowledge. We need to understand this, as part of our understanding of risk management.

Taleb also identifies:

  • Grey Swans
    Known Unknowns
  • White Swans
    … such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties. It was a Known-Known with low but finite likelihood – indeed some may predict it with high levels of precision.

Recommended Videos

Carefully curated video recommendations for you:

For more great Project Management videos, please subscribe to the OnlinePMCourses YouTube channel.

If you want basic Management Courses – free training hosted on YouTube, with 2 new management lessons a week, check out our sister channel, Management Courses.

For more of our Project Management videos in themed collections, join our Free Academy of Project Management.

For more of our videos in themed collections, join our Free Academy of Project Management

What is a Black Swan? | Video Click To Tweet

About the Author Mike Clayton

Dr Mike Clayton is one of the most successful and in-demand project management trainers in the UK. He is author of 14 best-selling books, including four about project management. He is also a prolific blogger and contributor to and Project, the journal of the Association for Project Management. Between 1990 and 2002, Mike was a successful project manager, leading large project teams and delivering complex projects. In 2016, Mike launched OnlinePMCourses.

follow me on: