Tired of the same old arguments? What is the true state of Agile Project Management? And what can we say about the future of Agile Project Management?
Agile project management has shaped the profession for more than 20 years—but the landscape is shifting. So, this video breaks down the Agile landscape. I look at the state of agile adoption, what’s in store over the ext. time horizon, and possible futures for agile. I end with my considered and frank verdict.
This video is safe for viewing in the workplace.
This is learning, so, sit back and enjoy
Agile Project Management has stalled.
There, I said it.
I think we are close to peak agile for two (maybe three) reasons:
- Adoption rates have peaked. New adopters are fewer in number and focused more on a hybrid approach – even if they are calling it ‘agile’.
- AI adoption has taken the focus and energy away from agile transformations.
And my third:
- I also wonder if agile is really delivering on its promised improvements at enterprise level.
But, Agile has won the language game.
Most organizations ‘do agile’, often at the team level. But they struggle to connect delivery to strategy, money, and measurable outcomes. There are, of course, exceptions – and plenty of partial successes.
More organizations talk agile than do agile. And more do it than are prepared to properly ‘be agile’.
Agile is now a broad, pragmatic toolbox
It has a host of practical ways of working, but it is not a single framework or ideology. There is a rich tool-set and plenty of frameworks (proprietary and home-brewed) , yet trusted, end-to-end insight is still patchy.
Culture and leadership behaviours are the rate-limiter: teams can sprint, but the organization jogs.
Adoption of Agile Project Management
There is still a steady stream of new adoptions. The various certification programs are healthy and both APMG International/AgilePM and PeopleCert/PRINCE2 Agile published new, updated versions in 2025.
But adoption at the organizational level remains sporadic, inconsistent and, dare I say, incremental. Amid the pressure for return on investment, there are plenty of ‘local’ successes, but little attested success for pure-play agile at the enterprise level.
I sense that demand for agility and agile adoption is being supplanted by calls for AI adoption at all levels, from product development and coding, to project tier, all the way up to enterprise transformation. AI may be yet to show its full potential, but it is 20 years younger than Agile.
What are the risks, holding back agile adoption?
- Leadership theatre — senior leaders endorse agile yet preserve old funding, planning, and control patterns.
- Output fixation — speed metrics crowd out genuine outcome measures like value, risk, and satisfaction.
- Cargo-cult drift — teams keep ceremonies but lose the “why,” creating ritual without results.
- Tool sprawl — many tools, little integration; reporting grows while understanding shrinks.
- Compliance headwinds — security, data, and regulatory obligations slow flow when not designed into the system.
- Change saturation — too many parallel initiatives overwhelm people and erode trust.
- Talent dilution — title inflation without capability; weak coaching and thin product management depth.
What Changes are Coming to Agile Project Management Next? (3–5 year horizon)
- From frameworks to fitness for purpose.
Less debate over ‘which framework’, and more focus on organizational fitness metrics: adaptability, reliability, and time-to-learning. We’ll see the end of agile, predictive, and hybrid and the emergence (with a new name, maybe) of something that encompasses all three. - From ceremonies to competencies
Hiring, coaching, and career paths emphasise systems thinking, product management, design, analytics, and engineering fundamentals. - From plans to portfolios
Quarterly, evidence-based portfolio decisions replace annual, fixed big-bet planning. And these will be inherently agile, because they will be capable of evolving rapidly with quarterly iterations. Potential projects will form a portfolio backlog, and projects will be portfolio sprint. Portfolio optimization will be a backlog grooming process. - From projectization to productization
The early 2000s saw a move to projectizing operations. Agile thinking will productize them, with product lifecycle, outcomes, and customer value as the dominant logic . - From dashboards to decisions
AI will allow us to have fewer, better metrics chained across strategy, portfolio, and teams; giving us more trustworthy data and automated interpretation. - From AI helpers to governed agents
Narrow, well-scoped agents will move from repetitive work to conducting sprints. Clear guardrails and audit will oversee progress and Sprint Reviews will be the ‘human on the loop’ step.
Possible Futures for Agile Project Management
- Normalisation
Agile becomes the default operating process for digital work and, to a lesser degree, corporate change projects. As a result, the split between ‘fast digital’ and slow core’ projects will close up. - Outcome Optimization
Organizations that tie strategy to delivery with rapid delivery using well-tailored processes and toolsets will out-learn and out-compete rivals. - Ethical and safe AI
Regulated sectors will lead on developing AI governance, audit, and resilience. Agile will piggy-back this and commerce will follow when they see it as a market advantage or reputational necessity. - Quiet Consolidation
Not only will we see fewer frameworks and tools in favor of tailored mash-ups, but we’ll also see more integration of project delivery and AI that will evolve the next big revolution after Agile.
My Considered Verdict on the State and Future of Agile Project Management
Agile is neither done nor dying; it is maturing. And that means it is necessarily slowing down. It is evolving into a key part of the management system for modern product development – and a toolset to support organizational change.
Its fate does not rest on frameworks, ceremonies, or certifications. Rather, three things will prove its worth or lead to its retirement:
- sustainable improvements in outcomes beyond the context of software engineering,
- trustworthy data and rigorous data analysis
- Integration with a responsible approach to using AI
With these, we will get an organization that learns faster than it plans. That is the real promise—and it’s still very much on the table.
You might like https://stateofagile.com and their latest (18th) annual report.
Recommended Videos and Articles about the Future of Project Management
Carefully curated video recommendations for you:
- Katie Taylor on The Future of Agile Project Management
- Data Analytics, AI, and the Future of Project Management – with Martin Paver
- How APM Sees The Future of the Project Profession
- Future of Work: What’s in PMI’s 2024 Pulse of the Profession Report?
- Top 10 Predictions: What Can We Expect in the Project Management Future?
- PMTQ: PMI’s Vision for the Future of Project Management
What Kit does a Project Manager Need?
I asked Project Managers in a couple of forums what material things you need to have, to do your job as a Project Manager. They responded magnificently. I compiled their answers into a Kit list. I added my own.
Check out the Kit a Project Manager needs
Note that the links are affiliated.
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