Arriving at a robust project schedule is hard. But, in this video, I will break it down into a simple process with three phases and 10 steps
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The Project Schedule Estimation Process
I have divided my consolidated project schedule estimation process into three phases:
- Understanding
- Estimating
- Protecting
Let’s look at each stage, and further divide the process into a total of ten steps for estimating your project Schedule
Phase 1: Understanding
- Understand the context of your project
This will give you an idea of political pressures and external dependencies. - Understand history
Look for reference projects and parametric data you can use. This can be one of the most robust approaches to estimating, if the projects are truly comparable. So, also aim to understand what systematic differences there are. - Understand the requirements
Do your research on what the stakeholders need. And also, look at how differing requirements among stakeholders can lead to conflict and future political pressures that can affect costs and schedules. - Document your assumptions
All estimates and forecasts are rooted in a set of assumptions. There’s nothing wrong with that. But what can be a problem is untested assumptions. More so still, embedded assumptions that you aren’t fully aware of. So:- Articulate and document all of your assumptions
- Test each of them for validity or at least plausibility
- In the latter case, check the impact of applying a different assumption
- Change them if you need to
Phase 2: Estimating
- Initial, Top-level estimate
Start with a high-level initial estimate.
OOM, top-down, parametric, or experience-based (expert judgment). Agile estimating techniques work well here to: Story pointing, bucket or Tee-shirt sizes, or planning Poker - Detailed estimate
The most structured approach is to break your project down into parts with a WBS and use bottom-up planning. This is where you might start to use 3-point estimates or even use the Monte Carlo method. - Confidence level
Add confidence levels to your estimates, to get a sense of how certain or not you are.
An estimate only has value when we also express with it the level of confidence we have. Confidence is the inverse of uncertainty. Experience, data, rigor, checking, and review all decrease levels of uncertainty and increase our confidence levels. Novelty, volatility, ambiguity, and complex stakeholder environments decrease our confidence in any estimates we make. We often express uncertainty or confidence in a range:- Time estimate: 12 days +/- 2 days. This is an example of a symmetric confidence range
- Schedule estimate: 30 September +20 days / – 10 days. Note this is an example of an asymmetric confidence range
This will inform…
Phase 3: Protecting
- Contingency
Add extra time to your estimates, based on how confident you are about your estimates. For example:- How familiar or novel is what you are doing?
- What is the level of risk?
- How complex is the task?
- What if?
Analyze different scenarios, and see how your estimates and contingency will fare. Select a range of plausible scenarios – including some your team may consider to have a low likelihood. - Checking and review
Always check your arithmetic. And compare your estimates with a simple Back of the Envelope estimate as a simple sense-check. You may want to carry out a Red-team review.
At the completion of your estimating process, hand over all your calculations and assumptions to the smartest, most critical people you can find. Invite them to test and challenge everything. The more holes they find in your calculations, assumptions, and methods now, the better. It’s only later that you will have lost the chance to fix them.
Recommended Videos to Help with Project Scheduling
Carefully curated video recommendations for you:
- How to Create a Project Schedule – 21 Steps in 5 Stages | Video
- Schedule Compression: What’s the Difference between Fast Tracking and Crashing?
- How to Use Machine Learning in Project Estimating, Scheduling, & Planning
- What is Estimate at Completion – EAC? | Video
- Project Planning Process – How to Build Effective Project Plans | Video
- How to Estimate Project Costs | Video
Recommended Articles to Help with Project Scheduling
- Project Scheduling: Your Essential Guide
- Project Estimating Skills: How to Master Successful Project Estimation
- Make Your Project Estimation More Reliable, Using the PERT Method
- Project Planning Process: Navigate the Many Steps You Need
- Planning Performance Domain: How to Plan a Solution to Meet Your Goals
- 12 Project Planning Mistakes… and How to Fix Them
What Kit does a Project Manager Need?
I asked Project Managers in a couple of forums what material things you need to have, to do your job as a Project Manager. They responded magnificently. I compiled their answers into a Kit list. I added my own.
Check out the Kit a Project Manager needs
Note that the links are affiliated.
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